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View Full Version : How does cage size effect fight outcome?



Soulbringer320
01-07-2015, 18:12
UFC (http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=news.search&phrase=UFC) Fight Night: Boetsch vs. Henderson took place in a 25' Octagon, rather than the usual 30' one, and there were ten fights ending in KO or submission, the second most in UFC history. Paul Gift (http://twitter.com/MMAanalytics), Bloody Elbow's analytics writer, looked in remarkable detail at how cage size influences MMA fights.
Gift analyzed 3,156 men's fights, in 312 UFC/WEC (http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=news.search&phrase=WEC) events, from Feb. 23, 2001 to Apr. 25, 2015. 79% of the fights were in the larger 30' Octagon, while 21% were in a smaller 25' cage.
What follows is a summary of the preliminary draft of my academic research on cage size in MMA, which will be presented tomorrow at the WEAI conference in front of professional critics and then submitted to a scientific journal and peer reviewed.
https://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WlsSkBiInS8H0DF_j9pIdRBPN94=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3835152/Gift_-_Cage_Size_-_1_-_Zuffa_Finish_Rates_by_Weight_Class__2001-2015_.0.jpg



My strongest findings are that we get faster fights, a larger proportion of fight time spent in the clinch (mostly with control against the cage), a lower success rate of takedown shots from distance and a higher rate of choke attempts per five minutes. Slightly weaker findings reveal that we should see more fight finishes, fewer decisions and more upsets.
As with all good things in life, nothing's ever free. The knockout/submission tradeoff is the clinch, or more precisely cage control. While true fight fans appreciate the nuances and strategy of a clinch fight against the fence, the average fan likely finds it boring. Statistical evidence supporting this claim can be seen in how the UFC punishes fighters much more for idle time in the clinch than idle time at distance or on the ground when handing out Fight of the Night awards..
Does the small cage create crazy action, knockouts and stoppages galore? I wouldn't go that far, but it does appear to be associated with a statistical story. The story is Fence and Finishes.